Obama Hasn’t Lost It Yet
(If you must, read the original here.)
By E.D. Dijon
If the election were held right now, President Obama might win. He might even win with about the same margin that propelled him into office in 2008. But the election won’t be held right now, it will be held in November, which could be a problem.
The biggest hope for the Democrats is that voters will ignore the President’s record. This is true regardless of the fact that Republican candidates like Mitt Romney have been badly weakened in the nomination battle. So far, Obama has been left largely unmolested by the conservative super PACs. However, it appears likely that Obama’s super PACs, fueled by union dues, contributions from George Soros and Hollywood, and even taxpayer kickbacks, will hold their own. So that takes us back to the President’s problematic record.
Democrats may be disappointed by the apparent fade of Rick Santorum in the week before the Michigan primary and his surprisingly disjointed (yes, sans teleprompter) performance in last week’s debate. Still, it’s not as clear to me as it is to others that Santorum would be any less competitive than Romney as Obama’s opponent; after all, any Republican with half a mind (that’s all of them, ha!) will be running against the President’s record.
What’s also obvious to any idiot with an internet connection and a keyboard is that Democrats have an interest in the Republican contest going on indefinitely, especially past the November presidential election. Romney victories in Tuesday’s Michigan and Arizona primaries would likely shorten the process, and ending the nomination battle quickly is a precondition for a Republican counteroffensive.
They need one. Up to now, the Republican battle has played entirely into Democratic hands, driving many in the talking/typing head class to completely ignore the Obama economy, his foreign affair failures, and the cram down on social issues. The Democrats need their voters to vote early and often, casting ballots over and over again to overcome a general revulsion towards Obama’s record. Democrats also need working-class people an normal Americans to ignore other unimportant issues like freedom of religion, association, and speech. Finally, Democrats must ignore polling data which says the wealthy are already paying enough taxes and to disregard the debt millstone facing future generations of Americans.
And that’s exactly what’s happening right now. Obama won in 2008 and even though he ran 18 points behind in the working class, it mattered little, having completely locked up the non-working class. Until recently, he was running even worse than his 2008 numbers and Democrats were reminded of being crushed in what’s hoped to be a once-in-a-generation anomaly known as the 2010 elections. Obama has now regained the help he will need — and in the process strengthened himself substantially by an Executive Order allowing imported “voters” from Egypt, Syria, and Mexico — regardless of $6 gasoline, the food stamp recovery, and cooked unemployment numbers.
In the meantime, Romney’s wealth and tax status, his private equity background, and his utter tone-deafness on matters of all sorts have hurt him with the SEIU, the NEA, the UAW, and even the American Socialist Party and the Communist Party of America.
At the same time, social moderates — described by the White House Press Office as anyone who thinks like, or to the left of, Obama — have been appalled by the direction of the Catholic Church on issues such as contraception and abortion. Still, any GOP improvement anywhere should serve as a warning for Democrats. The Republicans now know how Obama is dangerous to them in ways well beyond his role as an Oval Office tripping hazard.
Moreover, although Obama has a lead 8 months before the election — in Friday’s Real Clear Politics poll averages he led Romney by one point and Santorum by less than one — his job approval ratings are still stuck in the Jimmy Carter range. However, there is good news. A recent Pew survey pegged his approval at 45 percent among independents, a big increase over his 37 percent rating last month. This means at this same rate of improvement, the President will actually have an approval rate of over 100 percent by the time the election takes place. Joy!
All this works to explain why Democrats don’t want Romney to win Michigan. With a win, Romney might even steal the President’s playbook of fear, loathing, and crony capitalism, or even address his record on the economy. On the upside, with a win, Romney might spend some quiet time with wise and moderate consultants who could tell him about global warming, being an alpha male, and green energy subsidies, distracting him from focusing on the President’s record. Finally, Obama’s super PACs, fueled by billionaires and government rent seekers, eager to keep or develop the backroom deals he has promised, could fire away freely (and free, literally) in the media, field-testing messages and exploiting Romney’s religious affiliation.
Obama is far better off than he was six months ago when government figures were less politicized and corrupted. But he cannot afford to go wobbly or to let this home-made good news go to his head.