There are those who offer things are all breaking for Obama—for now—such as Jonathan Chait:
Why has Obama improved his standing? Pretty much everything has moved his way all at once. The recovery, which stalled last year, is picking up speed, and perceptions of the economy are improving along with it. The Republican candidates have all hurtled rightward and lost popularity in the center. Obama has managed to establish a contrast against the wildly unpopular Republican House rather than allow himself to be sucked down into its dysfunction.
Gas prices, the federal debt, Government Motors, Iran, Obamacare, and unemployment (among other issues) apparently do not count in Chait’s pretty much everything description.
And of course, there is external reality, which strongly contradicts Chiat (per the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll):
With the perception growing that he will be the GOP nominee, Romney leads President Obama by five points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Today’s numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 43%. That’s Romney’s largest lead since December. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
If Santorum is the Republican nominee, he is up by one point over the president, 46% to 45%.
Back to Chiat:
Right now, Obama is popular enough, and Romney unpopular enough — Americans truly detest Romney — that it seems safe to say that he is winning.
The lesson here, as personified by Chiat, is that all writing is autobiographical.